Feng Zhao, Dingning Zhang and Jie Zhang
The distribution of the underground economy in China shows obvious regional differences and has an important impact on the environmental pollution of relevant provinces. The spatial data analysis method is used to study the spatial differences between central and peripheral areas and between developed and backward areas in China’s underground economy, and the degree of provincial environmental pollution has significant spatial dependence. On this basis, the spatial error model and spatial lag model are further used to empirically analyze the impact of the underground economy and its scale on China’s environmental pollution, and the impact degree of underground economic growth on the ecological environment in various provinces of China is discussed. The research results show that there is a negative correlation between the underground economy and environmental pollution in various provinces of China, and the development of and changes in the underground economy and the way it acts on the macroeconomic determine the sustainability of this relationship. In addition, the impact degree of China’s provincial underground economic growth on the ecological environment differs in different regions. The impact of the underground economy on the ecological environment in the eastern and central regions is most significant from the early stage to the middle stage, and the impact of the underground economy on the ecological environment in the western region is most obvious in the middle stage.
Timothy Fry* and Yu Tian
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.599
First-Price-Sealed-Bid (FPSB) are widely used in both the public and private sectors. In a FPSB procurement common value auction, a seller must first estimate their cost to provide the product requested by the buyer and then determine a bid amount by adding a markup to the cost estimate. This markup must consider desired profits as well as informational uncertainties regarding the cost estimates since actual costs of production are known only after the product is produced. In this paper, we investigate the impact of better cost estimates on firm profitability and bidding strategy in a two- and three-bidder auction. Based on field data from over 1000 procurement auctions, we assume that errors in cost estimation follow a normal distribution. This assumption greatly complicates the analysis such that finding an analytical solution is unlikely. Therefore, using a numerical solution approach, we find the equilibrium solution for each type of seller under a variety of parameter settings. We find that advantaged sellers will be more profitable yet submit more aggressive bids. These results depend on the number of advantaged and disadvantaged sellers competing. Indeed, if there is more than a single advantaged seller competing, they will submit very aggressive bids resulting in profits that may actually decrease as each gets better at estimating costs. Our results provide a clear understanding as to the importance of accurate product cost estimates and extends the research on the effects of cost estimation accuracy in procurement auctions.
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.602
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.e108
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.e107
Rural areas in Kogi State Nigeria are facing neglect with attendant rise in the rates of poverty, unemployment and general underdevelopment thereby aggravating rural-urban migration. The underdevelopment of rural areas in the State calls for modern day innovations that Information and Communication Technology (ICT) offers. This study investigated the impact of ICT on rural development in Kogi State from the perspectives of poverty reduction. The study was based on the neoclassical theory of poverty. Multi-stage sampling method was adopted to select 10 households each from 120 rural communities that were earlier randomly selected from the 21 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of the State. This makes a total sample of 1,200 households used in the survey. Three models of regression were estimated in the study using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique. The results show that access to, ownership and utilization of ICT by households have had positive and statistically significant impact on poverty reduction in rural areas of Kogi State at 5% significance level. The study concluded that access, ownership and utilization of ICT have positively impacted the people in rural areas of Kogi State. The study recommended that Kogi State government, Non- Governmental Organizations and individual philanthropists should establish more ICT training centers and Community Internet Service Centers (CISC) in rural areas. Also, rural dwellers in Kogi State should make themselves available for ICT training.
Yacouba Conde* and Zhoulianying
In the machine learning technique, the knowledge graph is advancing swiftly; however, the basic models are not able to grasp all the affluence of the script that comes from the different personal web graphics, social media, ads, and diaries, etc., ignoring the semantic of the basic text identification. The knowledge graph provides a real way to extract structured knowledge from the texts and desire images of neural network, to expedite their semantics examination. In this study, we propose a new hybrid analytic approach for sentiment evaluation based on knowledge graphs, to identify the polarity of sentiment with positive and negative attitudes in short documents, particularly in 4 chirps. We used the tweets graphs, then the similarity of graph highlighted metrics and algorithm classification pertain sentimentality pre-dictions. This technique facilitates the explicability and clarifies the results in the knowledge graph. Also, we compare our differentiate the embedding’s n-gram based on sentiment analysis and the result is indicated that our study can outperform classical n-gram models, with an F1-score of 89% and recall up to 90%.
Charles Orina* and Fred Sporta
The main objective of this study is to determine mobile banking effects on commercial banks’ operational efficiency. The study looked at mobile banking loans concerning commercial banks operational efficiencies in Kenya. The study was guided by the financial deepening theory. The study adopted a descriptive research design targeting 41 commercial banks in Kenya. The study adopted a census survey, using secondary data from Kenya's central bank and the commercial banks' annual financial reports in Kenya. Data on the number of loans and advances issued by the banks. The study covered nine years from 2010-2018. STATA software was used in data analysis, descriptive and statistical inferential. The independent variable was measured against the dependent variable to examine if they affected commercial banks' operational efficiency. Regression equations estimated the relationship between the variables. Hausman test was used to specify the adoption of random effect or fixed effect models in panel data. The Hausman tested and fixed effect model was selected. The diagnostic tests covering heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and normality tests were also conducted. The findings were presented using graphs and tables. The results were as follows: Mobile loans (β=0.474, p<0.05). The study concluded that mobile banking loans had a significant effect on commercial banks' operational efficiency in Kenya. The study recommended that commercial banks invest more in mobile loans since it had a positive relationship with commercial banks' operational efficiency in Kenya. The study results would enhance the adoption of more financial innovation in the banking industry that would contribute to the economy's overall grow.
Shelter is one of the main desires of mankind and it is by far very important for the physical survival of man. The adequacy and excellence of housing is a testament to productivity, happiness and satisfaction. However, in Ethiopia, it is very difficult to build a house of your own or buy or even rent one. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of urban housing choice in the town of Debre Berhan, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia. This study shows that socioeconomic and institutional factors are the determinants of urban housing choice. The paper recommends future studies focusing on the challenges and prospects of urban housing. Increase the ability to provide quality and quantity housing at low prices.
Dimitri Sanga, Ehouman Williams Venance Ahouakan* and N’goran Assigno Frejus Adje
Like East and Central African sub-regions, West Africa performs modestly both in terms of productivity and governance. Low labour productivity in West Africa as well as the resulting lack of competitiveness, poverty and insecurity, increases the probability for this sub-region to not achieve the SDGs by 2030. It is therefore necessary to find ways to improve this. This study is part of this perspective. Beyond the traditional determinants of labour productivity, such as, physical capital stock, human capital and technical progress, it examines whether the quality of public policies and the institutional environment are likely to explain the performances recorded in terms of productivity in ECOWAS countries. Relying upon a neoclassical framework of reference, an econometric analysis is used for this purpose. The results confirm that improvement in the quality of public policies and institutions are overall associated with higher levels of productivity in these countries. However, some specificity is observed at the sectorial levels. Furthermore, the econometric analysis highlights a positive effect of investment and human capital on this productivity. The study recommends that the ECOWAS member states should improve their institutional quality and public policies. This could enable them to derive greater benefit from the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (ACFTA).
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.608
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.610
The phenomenon of demographic dividend signals transition of a country characterized by minimal use of technology, low level of education, and low economic growth having high birth and death rates to an industrialized nation with advanced technology, higher literacy level, and income growth having low birth rates and low death rates. The existing scientific literature confirms that now developed nations were able to successfully exploit their demographic dividend and translate it into sustained economic growth and improved standard of living. The birth rates and death rates are affiliated to and correlate with accompanying stages of manufacturing growth. The objective of this study is to review the experience of three countries in exploiting their demographic dividend and map out the lessons that India can implement to benefit from this window of opportunity. The countries selected for examination are the Republic of Korea, Brazil, and China. The nations selected had varied success in unlocking the demographic dividend. South Korea along with other Asian tiger economies has successfully utilized both first and second demographic dividend. With sustained investment in health and education along with increasing women's participation in the labor force and utilizing increased saving rates for capital accumulation, it was successful in leveraging its demographic dividend for economic development. China too greatly benefitted from its first demographic dividend becoming the 'factory of the world'. Comprehensive planning and its effective implementation along with an export-oriented growth strategy led to accelerated economic growth. With an aging population and the demographic effects of the one-child policy, China's ability to capitalize on the second demographic dividend in the future is not certain. Brazil on the other has failed to take advantage of its favorable demographic transition. With misplaced priorities and the absence of determined policy action to manage its demographic transition, Brazil has left itself vulnerable to demographic 'disaster' instead. The paper concludes that demographic dividend is not a guaranteed event for a country. To successfully benefit from demographic dividend a country needs conducive policy planning and investment in the development and utilization of the country's human capital. India also needs to correct the problem of 'missing women' in its labor force. It needs to empower local public administration to ensure efficient public services and fostering local opportunities. Also, India should have the foresight to formulate a comprehensive economic and social strategy to ensure a smooth demographic transition from a young country to a middleaged one. A country's success with demographic dividend ultimately needs integrated demographic, political, economic and, social policies altered a country's requirements.
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.609
Motivation of employees is a vital measure in human resources management which helps enterprises to promote the realization of the enterprise goals by improving employee motivation. Promotion and salary increase are the most widely used incentive means. If salary increase and promotion are used efficiently, they can achieve twice the result with half the effort, which is conducive to the enterprise to build a standard, and reasonable structure of the staff. An enterprise is usually a group made of many people. The game between the employer and the employees exists at all time. In the management process, the employer as well as the enterprise should consider how to balance the relative factors of all aspects to make the best management effects. The application of motivation to balance the advantage and the disadvantage can solve some problems in human resource management This paper analyses the game theory behavior of enterprises and employees under different strategies of salary increase and promotion, and recommends that enterprises should maintain the average level of wage growth in the market, increase salary moderately in the stage of rapid economic growth, and attach importance to the needs of highly skilled and talented employees, so as to provide some reference for human resources management of enterprises.
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.611
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.e112
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.616
Loan repayment has a vital importance to have sustainable of financial institutions and the micro finance institution are distribution loan facilities to Micro and Small Enterprises(MSEs) in order to fill the gap of borrowers financial problem and increase productivity. Oromia Credit and Saving Share Company (OCSSCO) were, therefore, established to fill the gap in the financial services by providing credit services to MSEs. However, there is a loan repayment problem of MSEs in the study area, which is an obstacle to microfinance institutions. The objective of the study was identifying factors that influence the loan repayment performance of micro and small scale enterprises in the study area, the primary data were collected from 135 respondents stratified random sampled selected through structured questionnaire and the secondary data were obtained OCSSCO recorded and from different books. For the data analysis, descriptive statistics were used to describe the socio-economic characteristics of the MSEs borrowers and an econometric model recognized as a binary logistic regression model was used to identify factors that affect loan repayment performance of MSEs. From a total of 14 explanatory variables in the regression seven explanatory variables were found to be statistically significant to influence loan repayment performance. As the result of econometric showed that educational status, training of the borrowers, Suitable repayment period, Loan supervision, Income from others Sources, Revenue from business and business experience were affect loan repayment performance positively significant. Therefore, the study suggests the identified significant factors to be considered effective measures and revise policy as to improve loan repayment performance and minimize defaults problem.
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.618
Corporate social responsibility, abbreviated as CSR is a new concept in the Indian corporate sector. India is reported to be the first country to introduce statutory corporate social responsibility through the Companies Act, 2013. Corporate social responsibility is channel through which the corporate sector address to the needs of the society which will be solved through the percentage of mandatory contribution in form of CSR. The percentage of CSR which has been prescribed by law is 2% of the profit of the company. The paper titled, ‘Corporate Social Responsibility: The relevance in Indian Corporate’ is an attempt to highlight various concepts of corporate social responsibility. In this paper we will be discussing the various works which has been done so far in regard to corporate social responsibility. And what is the future scope of works in the same regard.
Aaiman Siddiqui* and Mahrukh Mirza
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.617
Individuals from all areas of life were affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, which prompted authorities to advise people to self-quarantine in their homes to prevent the virus from spreading. The lockdown had a severe psychological impact, contributing to difficulties such as rage, tension and sadness anxiety and stress. The study titled, ‘‘Influence of Demographic Variables on Stress Level of Employees during COVID-19 Pandemic’ is conducted with the aim of assessing how the demographic profile affects the level of stress due to COVID-19. Total of 306 responses were collected using convenient random sampling and a self- administered questionnaire as data collection tool. For the purpose of data analysis we have used descriptive statistics, independent t test and ANOVA. The factors selected for the purpose of the study are number of dependents, employment status, family type, number of family members and number of earners in the context of the employees. Analysis of assessment on the basis of number of dependents shows that the p-value of the ANOVA test is 0.001, which shows a significant difference. On the basis of analysis conducted for the employment status of the employees, it was examined that unemployed participants have a higher level of stress. Participants with temporary employment and participants with permanent employee status show lesser stress. On the basis of type of family, it shows a significant difference in family type that means participants who were living separately were less stressed and the participants who were living in the joint family were more stressed. The effect of number of family members of the employees was evident from the analysis the number of family members were directly proportional to stress and so was the analysis pertaining to number of earners of the family.
H.M.S.J.M Hitihamu* and H.A.C.B Karunarathna
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.620
The main aim of this study was to identify key actors in inbound logistics, their positions in dairy value chain and asses the actors in primary and support activities according to Portor’s Value chain approach. The study was conducted in Nuwara- Eliya, Kandy, Gampaha, Anuradhapura Kurunagala and Jaffna district to represent six dairy farming systems of Hill country, Mid country, Low country wet, Low country dry, Coconut triangle and Jaffna Peninsula. Cost of production of one litre of milk including family labour cost was RS.59.63, whereas excluding family labour Rs.29.78. The labour cost accounts for 50% and feed cost account for 46% of total cost. The main value chain actors under the inbound logistics are input supply such as feed, water, labour, veterinary services and animal breeding. MILCO, NESTLE, YALCO, LIBCO, CIC, Pelwatta, Cargills and Rich Life dairies play a major role in milk collection, storage, processing and distribution. To enhance the dairy value chain efficiency, concentrate feed cost should be reducing and need to increase quality grass in diet. Further, increasing infrastructure, support services, promotion of local products and convert small scale produces in to economic units, establishing quality management system and introducing an appropriate milk distribution mechanism will enhance the dairy value chain efficiencies.
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.622
Shelter is one of the main desires of mankind and it is by far very important for the physical survival of man. The adequacy and excellence of housing is a testament to productivity, happiness and satisfaction. However, in Ethiopia, it is very difficult to build a house of your own or buy or even rent one. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of urban housing choice in the town of Debre Berhan, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia. This study shows that socioeconomic and institutional factors are the determinants of urban housing choice. The paper recommends future studies focusing on the challenges and prospects of urban housing. Increase the ability to provide quality and quantity housing at low prices.
This study analyzed whether pattern of fuel use follow the fuel stacking hypothesis and factors that affect household fuel use in Woliso town by using cross-sectional data of 2018 for different sources of energy using the Linear Approximation Almost Ideal Demand System (LAAIDS). An estimate of the model is constrained to comply with neoclassical theoretical restrictions on demand, and the model is estimated using Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regression (ISUR). The result shows that households do not completely switch to consumption of new energies as the energy ladder hypothesis suggests rather diversify their energy consumption in a process of fuel stacking (energy mix). Additionally, the expenditure elasticity’s of demand for energies are expenditure elastic. Not only this, but also, the cross-price elasticity’s of demand for energy sources indicate that there exist energy substitution and complementarity in the study area. Furthermore, we identified prices of all energy sources (except kerosene), household total energy expenditure, and years of education, family size, and residence type as the main determinants of expenditure share of energy sources. We recommend making modern fuels easily accessible, affecting significant factors of household fuel use, environmental related rules and regulations very essential.
This paper explains how to minimize firm loan credit risk and aims to outline various techniques for doing so effectively. It involves credit risk management theories. In this study a sample of 265 persons who were availed loans and customers of banks was chosen to collect opinions through a structured questionnaire in Bangalore. The factors under study were default loan, credit risk, insurance charges, interest rates, credit score and documentation. The results were finding by using descriptive and correlation analysis. Results showed that a connection exists between towards credit score, insurance charges, default loan and interest rates while availing a business loan. Email conversations with consumers of the target bank are used to perform qualitative research. Based on primary data of interviews; this study recommended that these private sector banks' management learn how to protect themselves from the looming threats of excessive credit risk, the importance of which cannot be overstated, as evidenced by the findings, which can have a detrimental influence on their profitability. The thesis' findings emphasize some challenges that limit the case bank's credit risk management, as well as recommendations for further research on the case bank.
The study is aimed at finding relationship between crude oil price in international market and exchange rate of Indian currency. As Indian economy is import dependent with high degree of inclination to crude oil import, the forex outgo due to this impacts Indian economy. The depreciation of Indian currency due to higher demand of USD and increasing trend of import dependency on crude oil aggravates the fiscal framework. The analysis is desired to find causality and auto regressive relationship between these two variables. The real exchange rate return has been compared in the process with real crude oil price which is found after adjusting it with CPI inflation of US. The Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model was used to identify lag relationship and subsequently lag length criteria was performed. The lag exclusion test specified the significant lag order. The granger causality and block erogeneity test was subsequently performed and the parameters were found to be block exogenous and not granger causal. This outcome was re-established with the help of variance decomposition test. However, the impulse test signifies impact of crude oil price shock on exchange rate of Indian currency and vice versa. The shock analysis also emphasizes the volatility of the parameters on its own shocks. The outcome concludes neither unidirectional nor bidirectional granger causality of the variables with no significant auto regression of the variances of the parameters. The analysis of impulse test confirms the short run impacts on exchange rate due to shock in the oil prices, henceforth which proves the fact about that demand of oil is elastic in short run, which is observed in most of the oil importing and emerging countries.
Siddharth Sharma* and Goinklavanya Goinka
The report underlined the job and the significance of consumer loyalty and devotion. Clients are the connection to business achievement. A business association should zero in on the countless clients, for this consumer loyalty and faithfulness ought to be joined along with the drawn-out objectives. This postulation was actualized to breaking down the connection between consumer loyalty and client relationship. The goal of this exploration is to consider the idea of consumer loyalty, client faithfulness and its relationship. Besides, this proposition contemplates the components that impact consumer loyalty and dedication. This proposition additionally breaks down the components that have sway on consumer loyalty and result in client devotion. Different strategies that have been generally used to gauge consumer loyalty and the resultant consequences of having steadfast clients are introduced.
Shilpa Deshpande
Abbott J Haron
Arpita Bhattacharjee
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.605
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.604
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.606
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.e111
Sia Willy Machange* and Mwapashuha Hamis Fujo
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.607
Project-wise, communication is an important element that many ignore its strategizing in projects operations. Communications in rural-setting projects especially in developing countries still needed further studies to reduce number of project failure triggered by poor communication. Therefore, the study aimed at assessing effective communication management emphasizing on the communication channels used in achieving stakeholder satisfaction in project-based organizations choosing RECODA’s project as a case study. With 125 sample respondents, the study established types and examined effectiveness of various communication channels. The findings envisaged that; traditional channels are still highly used in rural-oriented projects. Of the four communication channels used, face-to-face and meetings were rated the most effective modes of communication channels preferred by the stakeholders in projects due their convenience. Physical factors and few mobile phone ownerships were some of the highly rated barriers to effective communication. Conclusively, modern communication channels adoption is poor rural-based projects is still challenging.
Saeed Sadrzadeh Moghadam*, Shahram Golestani and Safieh Azimzadeh
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.624
One of the most important steps to establish industries is location studies for determining the best location of industries because the long-run result of this decision creates significant effects on the economy, environment and society. Due to the vast oil field, Iran is the fourth oil producer in the world. The shortage of refining capacity and high domestic demand for oil products has made Iran an importer of oil products like gasoline. Running new capacity of petroleum products is very important and in this way the expansion of existing refineries or building new capacity (construction of oil refineries) is the solution ahead. Given the high costs of constructing oil refineries in the country and state-owned oil industry, for building a new refinery it’s too important to choose the mechanism that minimizes the total costs. So determining the most suitable place for building a new refinery is very important. This study combines GIS and econometric likelihood linear models like logit and probit seeks to determine the optimal location for establishing an oil refinery in the geographical area of the country. In this study, some geographical criteria such as slope and elevation of land are used in the GIS section then all areas are studied and the areas that had the initial condition have been screened. Finally, using the logit and probit models, the studied areas were analyzed based on economic criteria and a final ranking has been done.
JEL classification: C52, C61, C88
Mauro Luisetto*, Fiazza C and Latyshev O. Yurevich
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.623
Because Italian Public Healthcare system is one of the most advanced system in the world it is interesting to observe how are evaluated the healthcare managers inside Involved in this filed. To observe this method can be a useful instrument to be followed also for not so advanced countries. In evolution of the Italian healthcare system a great step was the introduction by law of managerial methods as current way or organization and work. What is relevant to notice is that the motivation is a factor that contribute in success in a multiplicator way. The system is projected to guarantee uniformity and objectivity (in theory). The result of this research work is that the normative rules introduced in Italy since 1992 was able to Control the similar- logarithmic expansion trend of healthcare public costs. The global results of an economic institution, even if in healthcare settings, depends also to the Abilities and knowledge of its managers (Top, medium and of less higher level). In public Italian healthcare organization like hospital managers are divided in Professional managers and pure managerial career. Relevant role is played by the mechanism of recruitment of this managers as well as the progression to the upper position.
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.625
The quantitative study sought to identify corporate governance elements that precipitate commercial banks failure in Ghana and to outline policy recommendations to address those factors to make commercial banks more resilient and profitable. The quantitative study seeks to contribute to the body of knowledge by providing understanding on factors that contributes to banks failure in emerging economy like Ghana. A random sampling approach was used to collect annual report and published financial statement on 21 commercial banks. Based on this data, a fiveyear (5) panel data was formed: using a data range (2012 -2016 multiplied by 21 sampled banks) making a total of one hundred and five (105) observations. A random effect model was used to estimate the relationship between corporate governance elements and banks failure. Next, a correlation analysis was employed to examine the relationships between corporate governance elements, banks-specific financial proxies and exogenous factors and banks failure. Results from the study indicate a significant relationship between corporate governance variables, banks-specific financial information and macroeconomic indicators and banks failure. The study recommends the creation of Ghanaian corporate governance act to propose and increase in the female representation on the governing boards of commercial banks. This measure is to increase gender diversity and skills in the boardroom as it is evident in the study that higher gender diversity reduces the risk of banks failure. More so, the study recommends an effective management of credit default rate (using credit default swap to mitigate credit losses and) to boost financial soundness and profitability of banks in Ghana.
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.627
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.628
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.632
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.633
DOI: 10.37421/ 2162-6359.2022.11.626
Search engine optimization, which can optimize the search display position of content and expose the target content to readers faster, is a great tool for marketing. For foreign trade practitioners, the traffic entrances of the two major search engines, Amazon and Google, determine the exposure of products. Amazon drives consumers to click and search with shopping as the demand and has a clearer consumption intention, while Google is a bigger information plaza than Amazon, leading people to various websites.
Zarmina Ali Khan* and Arshad Hassan
DOI: 10.37421/ 2162-6359.2022.11.629
Purpose: This study analyse the asymptotic behavior of the tails of the return distributions in emerging markets through the lens of extreme value theory. It estimates and compares efficacy of the EVT based value at risk in emerging markets like Brazil(Bo Vespa), Russia(MOEX), India(Nifty 50), Bahrain(Share BAX), China(Shanghai), Colombia(COLCAP), Malaysia(FTSE), Thailand(SET INDEX), Argentina(Marvel), Bangladesh(Dhaka Stock Exchange), Pakistan(KSE 100) and Sri Lanka(CSE)) by using daily data for the period 2000-2018.
Methodology: The study employs block maxima model (BMM) based on generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and peak over threshold model (POTM) based on generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Peak over threshold model is applied under the assumption of unconditional and conditional volatility. Use of conditional EVT to estimate VaR is proposed by McNeil and Frey (2000) to capture the heteroscedasticity in extreme returns arising from stochastic volatility. Finally, the efficacy of models is evaluated through backtesting techniques proposed by Kupiec (1995) and Christoffersen (1998).
Findings: The Block maxima model underestimates risk whereas condition POT model overestimates risk at 95% and 99% confidence level. EVT based unconditional POT model performs better in comparison to the GEV based block maxima model and EVT based conditional POT model in all selected countries of emerging markets. The results are consistent under various backtesting approaches as the performance of the model does not change with an increase in confidence level. The difference of risk may be the outcome of role of equity markets in a country, levels of disclosure, governance laws and ownership structure.
Value: This study has important implication for portfolio managers in making the decision regarding resource allocation, portfolio diversification and risk management as EVT based unconditional POT model can be used for modeling risk of extreme events in emerging markets.
DOI: 10.37421/2162-6359.2022.11.630
The enthrall of this paper is based on the economic, social and political issues. It reflects present and future challenges for competitiveness and economic development in the global changing environment. International business encompasses all commercial activities that take place to promote the transfer of goods, services, resources, people, ideas and technology across national boundaries. It occurs in many different forms, the movement of goods from one country to another (exporting, importing trade), contractual agreements that allows foreign firms to use products, services and processes from other nations (licencing, franchising), the formation of operations of sales, manufacturing, research and development, distribution facilities in foreign markets. The aim of this paper is to introduce, analyze and explain international business in an important emerging light of globalization.
