International Journal of Public Health and Safety

Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia

Publications

• Research   
  Modeling and Forecasting the Global Daily Incidence of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): An Application of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model
  Author(s): Amare Wubishet Ayele*, Mulugeta Aklilu Zewdie and Tizazu Bayko
  
  Background: Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) is a public health epidemic outbreak and is currently a concern of the international community. As of 23 March 2020, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 has reached more than 300,000 worldwide. This burden crates high stress in the global community, and is having a significant impact on the global economy. This paper pursued to obtain a time series model that able to model and forecast the global daily incidence of Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Methods: Global daily number of confirmed cases and deaths from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) reported during the study period from 22 January 2020 to 22 March 2020 were considered. A time series model namely an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model was employed to model and forecast the daily global incidence of COVID-19. Va.. Read More»
  DOI: 10.37421/2736-6189.2020.5.202

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