Virology: Current Research

Dr, Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA

Publications

• Review Article   
  A Lattice Model of COVID-19 Epidemic
  Author(s): George R Gavalas*
  
  Susceptible, infective, recovered, and hospitalized/isolated individuals are placed on the cells of a n × n square lattice, where in each cell is occupied by a single individual, or is vacant. At discrete time units (typically one day each) all susceptibles and infectives execute a random movement and when a coincidence of the two types occurs at some cell the susceptible is converted to infective status according to some probability in the range 0.03-0.05. Infectives are labeled by the number of days since originally infected. At each time increment the age label of the infectives is increased by one unit. When the label reaches a specified number like 15 or 20 days the infectives recover according to a specified probability, e.g. 0.8, or become isolated/hospitalized. Upon reaching some specified age the latter types either recover or die. Probabilities for the movements .. Read More»
  DOI: 10.37421/2736-657X.07.S4.004

  Abstract HTML PDF