Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Landslides Susceptibility Analysis Using Analytic Hierarchy Process Method: A Case Study of Shigar Valley, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan

Abstract

Surih Sibaghatullah Jagirani, Zohaib Akbar, Irshad Ali Zardari, Liu Weiming* and Nazir Ahmed Bazai

Landslides and rock avalanches greatly influence livelihood, ecosystem, and are considered to be a vulnerable form of natural disaster. Northern regions of Pakistan, comprising of rugged mountains are home to a number of disasters including landslides. This study describes the susceptibility of landslide processes in the Shigar district of Gilgit Baltistan, which is considered to be a hotspot of natural hazards, and uses the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique to develop a methodology for evaluating and modeling landslide data. Field findings and results of this study identified that the occurrence of these events is impacted by a range of natural and anthropogenic factors, such as earthquakes, which shake and disturb the strength of formations, and continuous heavy rainfall, which increase the susceptibility of soil to erode and damage the connectivity between rocks and boulders. The effects of various landslide-triggering factors (geology, slope, aspect, land cover, road network, fault line, and river) are evaluated. Landslides are identified during the field investigation, confirmed by Shigar's local people and compared to the inventory map of landslides. Based on the landslide susceptibility analysis results, 64 percent of the area falls into the low LSI class, followed by the moderate susceptibility class at 28 percent and the high susceptibility category at 8%. The susceptibility map for landslides is used to forecast the spatial probability and can be used to design preventative actions for landslides in the Shigar district.