Journal of Biometrics & Biostatistics

Mass Shock-dosing of Cooling Towers in Response to A Legionella pneumophila Outbreak: Did it Work?

Abstract

Simon Thornley, Simon Baker, John Whitmore, Brigid O’Brien, Ron King and Gary Reynolds

Between January and June 2012, a moderate-sized Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 (Lp1) outbreak occurred in Auckland, New Zealand, which involved 19 cases, with two deaths. Initial investigation did not reveal a common source. Poorly maintained cooling towers were a likely cause, and mass shock dosing of all such towers with biocide was undertaken in April 2012 and repeated after an almost identical outbreak in the autumn of 2013. Our aim was to assess whether shock dosing of towers affected disease incidence. A time-series analysis, using regression discontinuity, of the notified Lp1 cases from 2007 to October 2014 was carried out. A total of 84 out of 92 cases of Lp1 were available for analysis. Seasonal trend decomposition showed an excess of cases in the autumn of 2012 and 2013, with a decline in 2014. Poisson regression showed an average log-linear annual increase in monthly notifications by 40% (95% confidence interval (CI): 17% to 68%), with an average 46% decline (95% CI: 74% decrease to 13% increase) comparing cases before April 2012 to those that occurred afterward. In dispersed outbreaks in urban settings, we conclude that this study supports mass shock dosing of cooling towers to limit disease occurrence.