Three-step-concept (TSC): Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) physics-of-failure equation sandwiched between two statistical models, with application to aerospace optics reliability

5^th International Conference and Exhibition on Lasers, Optics & Photonics

November 28-30, 2016 Atlanta, USA

Ephraim Suhir and Sung Yi

Portland State University, USA

Posters & Accepted Abstracts: J Laser Opt Photonics

Abstract :

When encountering a particular reliability problem at the design, fabrication, testing, or an operation stage of an aerospace optoelectronics product�s life, and considering the use of predictive modeling to assess the seriousness and the likely consequences of the a detected failure, one has to choose whether a statistical, or a physics-of-failure-based, or a suitable combination of these two major modeling tools should be employed to address the problem of interest and to decide on how to proceed. A threestep concept (TSC) is suggested as a possible way to go in such a situation. The classical statistical Bayes formula can be used at the first step as a technical diagnostics tool. The recently suggested physics-of-failure-based Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) model and particularly its multi-parametric extension can be employed at the second step to assess the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of the faulty device(s). If the RUL is still long enough, no action might be needed, but if it is not, corrective restoration action becomes necessary. In any event, after the first two steps are carried out, the device is put back into operation (testing), provided that the assessed probability of its continuing failure-free operation is found to be satisfactory. If an operational failure nonetheless occurs, the third step should be undertaken to update reliability. Statistical beta-distribution, in which the probability of failure is treated as a random variable, is suggested to be used at this step. The suggested concept is illustrated by a numerical example geared to the aerospace optoelectronics in en-route flight mission. With some modifications, it could be employed also in many other reliability physics-related problems. It is concluded that the application of the TSC enables one to improve dramatically the state of the art in the field of the optoelectronic devices and products reliability prediction and assurance.

Biography :

Email: suhire@aol.com