Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Geo-Spatial Approach Urban Expansion Land Use Change and Prediction Using (QGIS) Plugin Model in Wukro, Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia

Abstract

Fikre Hagos*, Daniel Teka, Mewcha Amha and Gebreyohanns Zenebe

Urban expansion is a spatial phenomenon that was indicates population growth, economic expansion, the importance of life on town/city etc. The use of current and historical data in urban expansion analysis is necessary in urban spatially and temporally using remotely sensed data, GIS and statistical relative data’s. Four Landsat images (i.e. 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015) TM, ETM+, and OLI sensors data used to determine urban expansion land use change The images were classified using ERDAS Imagen Maximum Likelihood supervised classification technique. The LULC classified into built-up area, cultivated lands, plantation, rivers and shrub land. The overall classification accuracy was 86.0% for 1985, 86.4% for 1995, 87.32% for 2005 and 89.32% for 2015. To demonstrate the reliability of the MOLUSEC QGIS model were implemented to analysis an urban expansion trends, urban expansion simulated process sand pattern in the study area. The obtained results provide a good rule for modeling urban expansion process, understanding urbanization contributing factors and predicting the future patterns. Furthermore, the resulting the current paper to be used for decision makers and urban planners to identify past and present urban expansion trends to prepared for the future urban demands. Finally, using the same model the urban expansion will simulated for 2025. Accordingly, the built-up area of town predicted to be 585 ha for 2025.